Poly-Ticks: Constitutional Carry Update

Here’s an interesting prognosis for Constitutional Carry through 2021 by Charles CW Cooke of National Review.

Cooke believes that “Its popularity keeps spreading inexorably across the country,” and sees the number of states requiring no permit for all or most of the state reaching 15 to 17 this year, based on research by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC). First, let’s look at where it’s law right now:

Cooke’s map of Lott’s read of Constitutional Carry, as of Jan 2017. Light green is CC that is limited in some way. So far, the media-predicted bloodbath in these states has yet to eventuate.

Their list of participants to date numbers 12, a few of which you might quibble about the definitions they’re using.

 State  Effective date
Vermont Since they became a state
Montana (99.4% of state) September 15, 1991
Alaska September 9, 2003
Arizona July 29, 2010
Wyoming July 1, 2011
Arkansas August 16, 2013
Kansas July 1, 2015
Mississippi July 1, 2015
Maine October 15, 2015
West Virginia May 26, 2016
Idaho July 1, 2016
Missouri January 1, 2017

For example, the nonpermissive 0.6% of Montana includes the incorporated city limits — all  of them. And Wyoming only extends the right to state residents, not visitors or passers-through. But consider this list in the light of a paragraph from Cooke:

15 years ago there was only one (two if you count Montana, which I’d classify as a “mostly constitutional carry” state) — and that 30 years ago most states had extremely restrictive permitting processes to boot — this is nothing short of remarkable.

Three states were added last year (the bottom three in the table above, from John Lott. FIve more states are likely to be added this year: IN, KY, NH, ND, SD. Four more are prohibitive longshots (CO, MN, TX, UT) where, according to the CPRC’s John Lott, legislatures are unlikely to pass or governors likely to veto, as the governor in Utah already has done; but it’s in play in those legislatures, (Consider the example of NH, where it passed twice and was vetoed twice, but now progresses through the legislature under the gaze of a supportive governor).

Cooke’s Map of Lott’s probable status quo as of one year from now, Jan 2018.

There is a network effect going on here, because in each state, liberals, most Democrats, and the media have bitterly opposed these laws and have predicted bloodbaths, while the actual law has come and gone without any remarkable event. (You might say that Constitutional Carry extends to the citizen inclined to obedience to law and authority the same carry rights that criminals everywhere are already expected to be practicing).

Given that network effect, Lott and Cooke project that several states where pro-gun attitudes among the public are motivating pro-gun attitudes in Congress, will likely go CC in the next four years, i.e., by 2021.

Cooke’s map of Lott’s projection for 2021. For comparison, in 1990 only Vermont would have been shaded.

This movement started slow, but has been accelerating of late. Lott’s prediction is conservative in that it predicts no further acceleration. In addition to the benefits offered to residents of and visitors to permitless carry states, the probable passage of license full faith and credit recognition would draw the fangs of some of the most rabid antigun districts.

18 thoughts on “Poly-Ticks: Constitutional Carry Update

  1. Tom Stone

    I have hopes that we will see recipricocity with Trump as President.
    It would cause several of our more deranged ticks to have strokes… or they might even emigrate to a crime free paradise where guns are outlawed, like Mexico.
    I’ll be Californicated for about three more years and depending on my health and finances may very well relocate to one of these United States where the Constitution is given more than lip service. It would be nice to have more choices, right now AZ looks best because my arthritis likes cold weather more than I do.

  2. 6pounder

    That’s an excellent trend. Kentucky will go this year. We have a decent governor again.

    1. Looserounds.com

      There is no doubt our excellent Governor Bevin will sign it into law when it gets to him. We would have had ut years ago if not for the obama asslicking POS last gov that boggles the mind on how he got elected

  3. Blackshoe

    I never cease to find it amusing that **Vermont** has open carry. And I know it has nothing to do with its current residents, and is a remnant of days when the leading citizens were men like Ethan Allen…but I still find it amusing.

  4. James

    I would argue all states constitutional carry under the bill of rights,lets work to get rid of all the gun law BS starting with 1934 or perhaps brady bill and work backwards,till then,still looking for permission.

  5. Ernie

    I can *Guarantee* KY will go CC this year for the simple reason I paid $70.00 today to renew my permit. Murphy’s a bitch.

    1. RLTW

      I shelled out $200 last week to upgrade my annual Tennessee Handgun Carry Permit into a lifetime permit. I’d still be ecstatic if we went to CC tomorrow; my wife is carrying our second child and can’t do the range portion of the required class to get her HCP until she’s not a food source anymore.

      1. TRX

        Some states have admitted their permit systems are income generators, and they’re reluctant to let the revenue stream go.

        Somehow that reminds me of the gun collectors who don’t want to see the NFA registry abolished. All their investment would evaporate with the stroke of a pen.

  6. Fred

    This was no accident. It costs money and time and possibly some friends or even family. If you guys are not in the pro 2A fight simply jump in. You can’t really do it wrong. Wright and call your reps or donate time and money to groups or find and mentor new and first time shooters. If you’re a ‘super gun know it all’ (I’m not) then teach your fellow gun folks and help them to grow. This is the ground game. This it what is winning. Your readers might also sign up for alerts from NRA-ILA and GOA (but read them before sending to your reps, not everything the NRA does is a good idea) I’ve only been in the fight for about 5 years now. I’ve got about 18 new shooters, mostly millennial’s and women started and I don’t hold back with local, state and fed reps, ever. The difference between 2A and all the silly activism is, we actually have something tangible and measurable to show for our efforts, new shooters and less government. Want to be free? Ground game. Period.

    @ProGunFred
    on Gab.ai
    #2A

  7. SPEMack

    Georgia, while not Constitutional Carry, is at the extreme of shall issue. Hell, it is worth the far and hassle (all of $25) just be excluded for NICS carp a the gun store.

  8. Aesop

    Still not green enough for me.
    The day the dominoes fall in NFY, CA, or IL can’t come soon enough.

    Even if it takes federal action to accomplish.

    Let my people go.

    1. Gray

      Imagine the weeping and gnashing of teeth if every “journalist” had to pay a fee and obtain a license to exercise their 1A rights like those who must for their 2A rights.

      It is quite a gig that they have there. Create a multi-billion capital enterprise to sell a manufactured product, saying that they are doing it altruistically and as their “duty and obligation”, claiming to speak for “the people”, and all the while wrapping themselves in the guarantees of the Constitution.

      Quite a masterful sleight-of-hand.

  9. Adam

    Well I love in Maryland. Applied for a permit and got denied. So, even if Constitutional Carry happens. I still won’t be able to because I do not have a permit from my home state. Gov. Larry Hogan hasn’t done a thing to help gun owners and doesn’t seem to want to help.

  10. pkoning

    Doesn’t PR also have constitutional carry, courtesy a court decision in the past couple of years?

Comments are closed.