A horde of “migrants” or “refugees” — it is interesting to see that European press style is increasingly favoring the former over the latter — has been swarming across Europe, trying to leave various Islamic paradises and dwell amongst the infidels, or at least, leech off the infidel’s overly generous welfare state. A relatively small percentage of them are from Syria or Iraq; tey are the no-hopers of every whistlestop, or what would be whistlestops if the trains had kept running after the hated colonizers left, in the Middle East and Africa.
They are almost all men. For “refugees,” they have made no effort to save their women and children. And they are mostly young, military-age males. So the question arises: what percentage of them are infiltrators?
The answer may be, “it doesn’t matter.” After all, the Tsarnaevs were not inifiltrators; the pressure-cooker prestoopniks were radicalized by the internet and the Islamic Society of Boston, an extremist Wahhabi mosque. But let’s try to answer the question anyway. The number has to be somewhere between 0 (which is unlikely) and 100% (which is also unlikely. Most of these guys are looking for a handout, not a suicide vest, at least at the moment). But what do informed people say?
Well, back in SFQC, and again in the SF Operations and Intelligence Course, we were taught to expect one in ten refugees to be either:
- an enemy infiltrator;
- directly under enemy control for espionage or sabotage; or,
- in contact and passing intelligence information to the enemy, but not explicitly under control.
Of these, the Number 1s are the least common and the Number 3s the most. But these numbers are drawn from experience with war zone refugees, for example, like the Vietnamese who fled the PAVN mass murders in Hue in the Tet Offensive. War Zone refugees are a negative image of this current group — in beautiful downtown Bulletsville, your refugees are women, kids, and old men, mostly, with scarcely a military-age man among them. On a group that skewed demographically youthful and male, you’d expect a higher percentage to be active enemies. So let’s set 15% as our upper bound for folks that are starting out hostile. This is a conservative figure, because many of those fleeing ISIL are fleeing because they’re members of other, defeated, violent groups.
What does the recent migrant swarm attack on the Chunnel tell us?
[A]ccording to French officials, political activists embedded among desperate migrants in Calais were instrumental in persuading them to adopt more extreme tactics to break in to Britain.
….A Eurotunnel spokesman described the onrush as “a massive invasion and intrusion by a very large and co-ordinated group of migrants”.
A French emergency services spokesman on the ground in Calais said political activists were ‘co-ordinating’ the invasion.
He said: “They were very clearly helping to break down fences and guiding the migrants in a coordinated attack. They got into the south tunnel, and the service tunnel.” ….
The head of a major police union said he believed attempts to storm the Channel Tunnel were partly organised by British left-wingers.
Gilles Debove, from the union Unite SGP-Police FO, said: “This is being encouraged not by human traffickers, who wish to remain discreet, but by extreme left elements here to manipulate the migrants in the name of their ideal of imposing a country without borders or police. Among these activists are quite a few Britons.”
Describing the attack, a spokesman said: “It’s clearly an organised attack when it comes in such a large number, there are over 100 in this one group.”
“They arrived together and in a well-organised manner broke through the fences and all clearly knew where they were going.”
These guys seem perfectly law-abiding! Nah, there’s probably nobody that wishes France or Britain ill in that untidy scrum.
Still, it’s not all bad news for civilization.
Thirteen migrants have died trying to reach Britain since the start of the crisis in June.
An Eritrean man in his 20s, was killed on Wednesday and is believed to have been hit by a freight train near the tunnel entrance at around 1am.
Early on Tuesday morning a 20-year-old Iraqi man was crushed to death after apparently sneaking on board a lorry to reach the UK.
The HGV driver discovered the body in the back of his vehicle near Calais port as he inspected his load after he was forced to brake suddenly.
Well, there’s one mall or sporting event that won’t get shot or blown up.
If 15% is the high bound for the number of these migrants who are actually cuckoo’s eggs, what’s the low bound? Again, any estimate is of necessity fuzzy, but here’s a conservative-sounding one — in an op-ed by Ari Harow in the Los Angeles Times (emphasis ours).
Hungary and Slovakia have been vilified by many for rebelling against taking in thousands of refugees. Not only have they rejected European Union-imposed quotas, but both countries have made it clear that a mass Muslim migration would pose unacceptable demographic and cultural challenges. Their concerns are well founded, not only over integration but especially from a security perspective.
Lebanon’s education minister, Elias Bousaab, warned recently that two in every 100 Syrian migrants arriving in Europe are Islamic State fighters, sent to infiltrate a continent distracted by sympathy. If Bousaab’s conservative calculation proves accurate, it would mean that among the 10,000 Syrian refugees that Secretary of State John F. Kerry has pledged to allow into the United States in 2016, there could be 200 committed terrorists.
OK. With the high bound for infiltrators at 15%, the low bound is at 2%. Let’s assume the Good Samaritans welcoming these scorpions are blessed with a jihad rate at the low bound. What does that mean, for, say, Germany?
Bundeskanzler Angela Merkel has committed the Federal Republic to accept 1.5 million “migrants” — this year alone. Since these refugees are all young men, the nation is also on the hook for their immediate and extended families — about 7.36 million people. But wait! That’s on the old number of 920k migrants. What about the new 1.5 million? Then the family horde is 12 million people.
Worst case, 15% and all migrants and family members being equally likely to become jihadis, that’s 1.8 million jihadis loose in Germany. If 15% of the men alone become jihadis, then it’s a manageable 225,000 jihadis, or a mere 22,500 Mumbai-attack equivalents, or a trivial 56,250 equivalents of the Westgate Mall attack force.
Long before thousands of opportunistic attacks happened, Germany would get back in touch with its totalitarian past. Anyone who thinks that’s a good idea isn’t thinking things all the way through, and anyone who thinks admission of millions of mohammedan immigrants to Europe is a good idea is, ultimately, calling for this outcome.
But that’s the worst case, remember? Let’s look at Minister Bousaab’s number as a potential best-case. What would those numbers be?
Worst of the best case, 2% and all migrants and family members being equally likely to become jihadis, that’s only 240,000 jihadis. If 2% of the men alone become jihadis, then it’s only 30,000 jihadis, which means we’re turning loose in Germany only 3,000 Mumbai-attack equivalents, or only 7,500 equivalents of the Westgate Mall attack force.
Would they actually do that? Harow thinks so.
[M]ake no mistake, Islamic State and other enemies of the West are planning to exploit this chaos. In the last year, Islamic terrorists carried out major attacks in Paris and Copenhagen. And recently, three Americans on vacation thwarted an attack on a Paris-bound train.
Many Western leaders appear so self-satisfied with answering the call for refuge that they have fooled themselves into believing that their largesse provides a genuine solution. ….
The reality is that the only effective way to help those fleeing violence in Syria, Iraq and the wider region is to cut off the source of that violence — in the Middle East.
The US isn’t going to do that. Nor will the EU. Getting goodfeels about refugees is a positive value for the leadership of these nations; actually preventing refugees doesn’t give them the same moral frisson.
It’s a good time to invest in whoever makes the Polezei’s bullets — they’re going to need to start training. A lot.
Finally, remember that Bousaab’s number of 200 committed terrorists in the US was the best-case scenario. If the Bousaab numbers are not right, and the SFQC numbers are, we’re looking at 1,000 to 1,500 new Marathon bombers and Sudden Jihad Syndrome shooters. Say thank you to Secretary Kerry.