We’re going to start with a disclaimer: ATF trace data is not a real solid statistical base for anything. The firearms that are traced are not a random sample, but tend to be crime guns, found guns, and recovered thefts; and the ATF discourages local PDs from requesting tracing of older guns. (For political reasons, they’re trying to drive time-to-trace, which they disingenuously call time-to-crime, down). So a gun’s presence in the data depends somewhat on how ugly it is, and how new. But it struck us that they did collect a lot of data, so the Law of Large Numbers might be working for us, a wee bit. And they break down the data by both state (or territory) and by type of firearm, allowing all kinds of creative crosstabs, in this case, pistols and revolvers by state (or states by percentages of pistols and revolvers).

It struck us further: if revolvers are more or less commonly traced than average, the data may represent the degree to which there are regional variations in automatic pistol vs. revolver preferences. (Almost all “pistols” on the ATF list are automatics, although there may be occasional oddities in there). Again, this is limited by the non-representative nature of ATF trace data.

All in all, the trace data show that ATF traced 175,361 handguns in calendar 2014. Of these, 131,562 were pistols and 43,799 were revolvers, a 75.0/25.0% breakdown. How much do individual states vary from that? Extracting the pistol and revolver data from the ATF’s spreadsheet, we made our own. First thing we ran was the MIN and MAX formulas, determining that the range of percentages was from 14% to 50%.

The first revelation: not a single state or territory saw that a majority of traced handguns were revolvers. Not one. And only one split fifty-fity, and it turned out to be a very peculiar place indeed. To give you an idea of how far out of whack that was, the next highest percentage of revolvers traced was barely more than 1/3: 33.8%.

The high scorer on percentage of revolvers was a case where the law of large numbers probably wasn’t working for us: only 18 handguns were traced in the territory of Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands, 9 each pistols and revolvers (50% revolvers). The low scorer was another territory, Puerto Rico; of the 1,030 handguns traced there, 886 were pistols and only 144 revolvers (14%).

To show that Guam was really an outlier, off 16% from the next state, here it is with the next five states in order:

Fascinating that the second largest percentage of revolvers was traced to Guam’s neighbor (to the extent anything in the vast Pacific is a neighbor), Hawaii.

At the other end of the spectrum, Puerto Rico shows less of an outlier status, being off only 2% from the next state:

We should probably have put it in the images, but this is all from Calendar Year 2014 data as reported by BATFE.

After the jump, there are some data tables and a linked spreadsheet for playing with them your ownself.

 

Original ATF spreadsheet:

firearm_types_recovered_and_traced_in_the_united_states_and_territories.xlsx

Weaponsman.com spreadsheet (it has three tabs, not linked to one another; each stands alone):

Weaponsman Revolver Trace Data.xlsx.

Full Table By State Alphabetically

This is what you get when you sort the data alphabetically by state, and leave the totals at the bottom.

State	Pistols	Revolvers	Total Handguns	Pistols %	Revolvers %
ALABAMA	3,579	1069	4,648	77.0%	23.0%
ALASKA	361	117	478	75.5%	24.5%
ARIZONA	4,260	1057	5,317	80.1%	19.9%
ARKANSAS	472	159	631	74.8%	25.2%
CALIFORNIA	15,570	6710	22,280	69.9%	30.1%
COLORADO	1,919	541	2,460	78.0%	22.0%
CONNECTICUT	646	288	934	69.2%	30.8%
DELAWARE	522	187	709	73.6%	26.4%
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA	791	324	1,115	70.9%	29.1%
FLORIDA	11,238	3761	14,999	74.9%	25.1%
GEORGIA	6,984	1963	8,947	78.1%	21.9%
GUAM & NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS	9	9	18	50.0%	50.0%
HAWAII	45	23	68	66.2%	33.8%
IDAHO	385	105	490	78.6%	21.4%
ILLINOIS	6,394	2716	9,110	70.2%	29.8%
INDIANA	3,500	863	4,363	80.2%	19.8%
IOWA	730	186	916	79.7%	20.3%
KANSAS	1,298	302	1,600	81.1%	18.9%
KENTUCKY	1,777	544	2,321	76.6%	23.4%
LOUISIANA	4,306	1214	5,520	78.0%	22.0%
MAINE	132	51	183	72.1%	27.9%
MARYLAND	3,058	1374	4,432	69.0%	31.0%
MASSACHUSETTS	857	367	1,224	70.0%	30.0%
MICHIGAN	3,207	1028	4,235	75.7%	24.3%
MINNESOTA	1,258	352	1,610	78.1%	21.9%
MISSISSIPPI	1,550	465	2,015	76.9%	23.1%
MISSOURI	3,050	729	3,779	80.7%	19.3%
MONTANA	220	66	286	76.9%	23.1%
NEBRASKA	520	157	677	76.8%	23.2%
NEVADA	1,802	554	2,356	76.5%	23.5%
NEW HAMPSHIRE	122	58	180	67.8%	32.2%
NEW JERSEY	2,129	1023	3,152	67.5%	32.5%
NEW MEXICO	783	217	1,000	78.3%	21.7%
NEW YORK	3,793	1756	5,549	68.4%	31.6%
NORTH CAROLINA	5,506	1913	7,419	74.2%	25.8%
NORTH DAKOTA	438	155	593	73.9%	26.1%
OHIO	6,204	1882	8,086	76.7%	23.3%
OKLAHOMA	765	227	992	77.1%	22.9%
OREGON	1,666	568	2,234	74.6%	25.4%
PENNSYLVANIA	4,848	1676	6,524	74.3%	25.7%
PUERTO RICO	886	144	1,030	86.0%	14.0%
RHODE ISLAND	225	90	315	71.4%	28.6%
SOUTH CAROLINA	2,330	769	3,099	75.2%	24.8%
SOUTH DAKOTA	88	28	116	75.9%	24.1%
TENNESSEE	3,044	1081	4,125	73.8%	26.2%
TEXAS	8,977	2329	11,306	79.4%	20.6%
US VIRGIN ISLANDS	110	21	131	84.0%	16.0%
UTAH	590	141	731	80.7%	19.3%
VERMONT	71	30	101	70.3%	29.7%
VIRGINIA	4,057	1106	5,163	78.6%	21.4%
WASHINGTON	1,890	563	2,453	77.0%	23.0%
WEST VIRGINIA	396	156	552	71.7%	28.3%
WISCONSIN	2,121	544	2,665	79.6%	20.4%
WYOMING	83	41	124	66.9%	33.1%
Totals	131,562	43,799	175,361	75.0%	25.0%
Alphabetical by State Data					© 2015 Weaponsman.com

Table by Revolver Percentage

As you might expect, sorting by %age of revolvers makes totals (where the percentage will be, naturally, the overall average) fall right in the middle. We’re not entirely sure what to make of it. For instance, the extremes on both ends are isolated islands with stricter-than-mainland gun control laws.

It would be interesting to add a column for Region. You can see at a glance that all the New England and Northeastern states have above-average revolver percentages, and, Old West imagery notwithstanding, all the Southwest has a below-average share of revolvers traced. (But then, Wyoming is very high on the list, in the Top 6 above). Maybe most of the heirloom Peacemakers are held by white hats.

If gun control laws had an impact on whether “older-fashioned” revolvers or “more-modern” automatics are more frequently traced (scare quotes used because both firearm types have century-plus histories and current production), that impact is not immediately apparent. States with very punitive (Hawaii, PR, New York)  and states with very liberal laws (Wyoming, NH, Utah, Kansas) are found on both ends of the distribution.

State	Pistols	Revolvers	Total Handguns	Pistols %	Revolvers %
PUERTO RICO	886	144	1,030	86.0%	14.0%
US VIRGIN ISLANDS	110	21	131	84.0%	16.0%
KANSAS	1,298	302	1,600	81.1%	18.9%
UTAH	590	141	731	80.7%	19.3%
MISSOURI	3,050	729	3,779	80.7%	19.3%
INDIANA	3,500	863	4,363	80.2%	19.8%
ARIZONA	4,260	1057	5,317	80.1%	19.9%
IOWA	730	186	916	79.7%	20.3%
WISCONSIN	2,121	544	2,665	79.6%	20.4%
TEXAS	8,977	2329	11,306	79.4%	20.6%
VIRGINIA	4,057	1106	5,163	78.6%	21.4%
IDAHO	385	105	490	78.6%	21.4%
NEW MEXICO	783	217	1,000	78.3%	21.7%
MINNESOTA	1,258	352	1,610	78.1%	21.9%
GEORGIA	6,984	1963	8,947	78.1%	21.9%
COLORADO	1,919	541	2,460	78.0%	22.0%
LOUISIANA	4,306	1214	5,520	78.0%	22.0%
OKLAHOMA	765	227	992	77.1%	22.9%
WASHINGTON	1,890	563	2,453	77.0%	23.0%
ALABAMA	3,579	1069	4,648	77.0%	23.0%
MISSISSIPPI	1,550	465	2,015	76.9%	23.1%
MONTANA	220	66	286	76.9%	23.1%
NEBRASKA	520	157	677	76.8%	23.2%
OHIO	6,204	1882	8,086	76.7%	23.3%
KENTUCKY	1,777	544	2,321	76.6%	23.4%
NEVADA	1,802	554	2,356	76.5%	23.5%
SOUTH DAKOTA	88	28	116	75.9%	24.1%
MICHIGAN	3,207	1028	4,235	75.7%	24.3%
ALASKA	361	117	478	75.5%	24.5%
SOUTH CAROLINA	2,330	769	3,099	75.2%	24.8%
Totals	131,563	43,799	175,362	75.0%	25.0%
FLORIDA	11,238	3761	14,999	74.9%	25.1%
ARKANSAS	472	159	631	74.8%	25.2%
OREGON	1,666	568	2,234	74.6%	25.4%
PENNSYLVANIA	4,848	1676	6,524	74.3%	25.7%
NORTH CAROLINA	5,506	1913	7,419	74.2%	25.8%
NORTH DAKOTA	438	155	593	73.9%	26.1%
TENNESSEE	3,044	1081	4,125	73.8%	26.2%
DELAWARE	522	187	709	73.6%	26.4%
MAINE	132	51	183	72.1%	27.9%
WEST VIRGINIA	396	156	552	71.7%	28.3%
RHODE ISLAND	225	90	315	71.4%	28.6%
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA	791	324	1,115	70.9%	29.1%
VERMONT	71	30	101	70.3%	29.7%
ILLINOIS	6,394	2716	9,110	70.2%	29.8%
MASSACHUSETTS	857	367	1,224	70.0%	30.0%
CALIFORNIA	15,570	6710	22,280	69.9%	30.1%
CONNECTICUT	646	288	934	69.2%	30.8%
MARYLAND	3,058	1374	4,432	69.0%	31.0%
NEW YORK	3,793	1756	5,549	68.4%	31.6%
NEW HAMPSHIRE	122	58	180	67.8%	32.2%
NEW JERSEY	2,129	1023	3,152	67.5%	32.5%
WYOMING	83	41	124	66.9%	33.1%
HAWAII	45	23	68	66.2%	33.8%
GUAM & NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS	9	9	18	50.0%	50.0%
By Revolver Percentage Data					© 2015 Weaponsman.com

Other columns that would be interesting to add would be one of state population, and one of state crime data (the most reliable crime data point, and the one least subject to statistical and classification jiggery-pokery by dishonest top cops looking to massage the numbers, is homicides or murders. A stroke of a key can, and does in places like New York, erase assaults, home invasions and rapes, but if you have a dead body even NYFC’s corrupted CompStat has to count it).

There are also much more comprehensive descriptive statistics that can be run on this data and would probably reveal all kinds of enlightening things. Also, past ATF releases can be groomed for trends. A bit surprising that ATF, which has more money than God, doesn’t already have a team of statisticians or at least a couple MBAs or maths undergrads going through these.